Hi The Prophet; Re: "50% likelihood that RMBS obtains 20% or more market share in DRAM going forward."
The reason you're using a 50% number is because this is an area in which you have no knowledge. So one thing seems just as likely as the other, and you therefore get 50%.
And anyway, RDRAM now has more than 20% of the market, as measured by sales, rather than bits. The problem is that everyone knows it's temporary. [Samsung has (had) 20~25% of their production, by bits, in RDRAM. They're about 20% of the total DRAM market, and 50% of the RDRAM market. Therefore, the total market penetration, by bits, for RDRAM is about 22% * .20 / .50 = 8.8%. Since RDRAM is 4x the price of SDRAM, the overall sales percentage is probably above 25%.]
In addition, your figure for a $30 billion memory market isn't going to happen in 2001 or 2002, and is very unlikely for 2003. (Want to bet?)
-- Carl |
