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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Tom Gordon who wrote (236)8/17/2001 8:12:53 AM
From: Mark IvanRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
Tom,

You sure do preach gloom and doom...signs of the times. As to not buy a house right now because of a possible real estate crash....well, you could be right and you could be wrong. People try and time the stock market, why not try and time the real estate market. As you know, a house can be a solid investment. People will always need them and there will always be a market for them. People live longer and will continue to live longer.

Are people over-extending themselves? Probably. I own a bigger home at 37 than my parents. I have a relatively large mortgage, but personally, I run my finances to handle it. Did I pay too much? I don't know. I do know I paid roughly the market value for the house, which is what most people pay. I wasn't gonna sit in my previous smaller house in a so-so neighborhood with $hitty schools and wait to see if prices came down.

Consumer debt is a problem and you are seeing the results of it here. Spending is slowing and people are getting more debt "worried". The NASDAQ has crashed at 75% of the great depression levels. And we are not coming out of it. Why? Because of the reasons you state. Wild spending and high debt will take time to unwind. Spending will resume at a much slower pace as people use part of their money to pay down debt. But I think the worst is over. Sure, we may get a final big drop out in the market; housing prices may crack a bit, etc, etc. But I think we are definetly closer to the bottom of the cycle here than at the top.

Regards,

Mark
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