This may a basic argument, but one which I think is important (to remember, constantly):
Money rotates. Money finds supposed "safe" havens. Etc.
Last year, as the internet bubble was getting crushed, money flowed into the "safe" tech, like EMC, Csco, etc....those stocks held up great/did well until fall.
Then, as those guys got crushed this year, the "safe play", more or less became the Dow.
Before this thing is over, all the "safe" plays have to be eliminated (including dollar/currencies). There can be no question that there is "safe" money parked in the Dow/dollar. And it will leave those stocks just like the Cscos and EMCs before them. I think, just maybe, we are starting that important leg now.
And of course, I do expect an overshoot....for, markets always overdo it. |
