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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Teresa Lo who wrote (15479)8/17/2001 3:02:56 PM
From: Dave  Read Replies (3) of 52237
 
Teresa, you must talk to different investors, or listen to different analysts, or read different newspapers than I. Market psychology is still very bullish. Everybody is predicting a market bottom "next quarter or the one after that," precisely as they have been for the past few quarters. And it's just not going to happen. You just don't have a year-long Bear with no recession after 18 years of Bull. Every market dislocation results in an equal and opposite dislocation. The major indices are still incredibly overvalued. The Nasdaq 100 is not even profitable, yet sells at a high multiple of REVENUES, and those revenues are declining rapidly. Is that really the kind of market that you see at or near a market bottom? No, it's more what you'd expect just before a crash. Gold is still not far off its 30-year lows, the dollar is still flying high, and the real estate bubble has only begun to be pricked, and even then only in Silicon Valley, where just a few months ago an 1100-sf bungalow on a tiny lot was selling for $1M. The Dow and S&P 500 indices are still within spitting range of all-time highs. They haven't even felt any pain yet.

Keep your crash helmet on. Y'ain't seen nuthin' yet.

Dave
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