Skeeter,
actually, i *knew* disaster was coming when the naz went into bubble insanity
Skeeter, I respect your knowledge, but *knew* is a strong word here. You've been predicting MU is going to $0 for quite some time now. As you know, it is $70 or so pre-split nowadays.
Nobody knows we we are going. Zeev does a hell of a job, but he just puts probability on his side. Draw a straight line on the NAS from 1985 to today and have it increase 10% a year (market norm). When the NAS is above it, short it. When it is below it, long it. By the time you die, you will probably do fine and have never lost a single trade. Everyone knew the 98, 99, 00 years were a bubble. Just like we knew Yahoo and AMZN and Red Hat, and etc, etc, etc were overvalued. What you don't know is when the insanity will end. Many a people got KILLED on Yahoo and AMZN. Many, many people. These people were all correct in their thinking, just wrong on their timing. As I'm sure the case is with you and MU. (personally, ever time I touch that beast, I lose).
I know things can get worse. They can get a lot worse. I just do not think it is going to happen now. We've suffer a lot relative to where we have been. Relative is the key word there. That's why I think we rebound and are near a bottom. Nothing says that in 2 years we might be a lot worse off than today.
Comapring us to the Japanese is not a fair comparison. They are savers. We are spenders. If you take my mortgage rate and make it 1% or so, you have just freed me to spend a lot of free money I was otherwise paying to the bank. That will indeed help the economy. At least for a few years : )
Mark |
