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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Walt Deemer who wrote (8350)8/17/2001 11:41:46 PM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (4) of 19219
 
Rydex Total Assets Update for Friday, August 17th 2001:

     Regular Series:

     SPX Long - NOVA     233.5  Million**BULLISH  
     SPX Short- URSA     230.1  Million
     NDX Long - OTC      969.5  Million**BULLISH- Lowest close since April 4th  
     NDX Short- Arktos   76.1   Million 
                    
     XAU Precious Metals 63.9   Million   
     Banking             88.6   Million
     Biotech             306.3  Million**BULLISH   
     Money Market        1.444  BILLION**Oversold

*******************************************

     Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index)

     SPX Long - TITAN    74.6   Million**BULLISH 
     SPX Short- TEMPEST  70.2   Million**BULLISH

     NDX Long - VELOCITY 136.9  Million 
     NDX Short- VENTURE  67.3   Million

*********************************************
Today was controlled capitulation. By that I mean the CBOE Equity Index Put Call Ratio traded all day above 1 with a high reading of 1.16 and a loww reading of 1.01 with a close of 1.07. It traded narrowly b/w 1.07-1.09 from noon until 3 cst. The final 1.07 reading today closed higher than the 1.01 close on Weds October 18, 2000. (The high read on Oct 18 was 1.36.)

The reason I bring this comparison up is because to the best of my knowledge, October 18, 2000 was the last day the CBOE PC Ratio traded above 1 all day long. And we got a hard 3 day snapback starting the very next trading day.

Here was what the Rydex numbers looked like on October 18, 2000 for comparison purposes that was put up by bobby beara when he was helping with rydex numbers:

    rydex 10/18

     nova         355
     ursa         297.5
     otc          2549.9
     arktos       129.5

     money market 1497

     titan        47
     tempest      16.4

     velocity     87.4
     venture      54.8

The important point to draw out of this is that sometimes it is P/C Ratio's that show capitulation without full
Rydex capitulation to back it up. SPX is basically even now in both Long and Short Funds and this was not
the case in October comparison. MM TA both at oversold levels while you can see we have worked off over 1.5 BILLION in NDX Long OTC.

Broad market is below double oversold levels everywhere. Market will bounce hard next week.

Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN

Best Regards, J.T.
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