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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 683.47

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Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: j g cordes who wrote (33634)	8/18/2001 4:01:31 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 68398

Things that make you go hmmm! :) Interesting point, if most businesses upgraded there computers in preparation for the Y2K problems and most computers are obsolete after 3 to 4 years (also assumes the assets is totally depreciated at this point), then most companies will not need to upgrade till 2002 or 2003. Given that 50 percent of electronics produced go into computers, we may not seem a significant recovery in the semiconductor and computer sector till then. Telecom looks like it has gone back to the traditional 12 to 15 percent growth rates. Deregulation is allowing the telcos to depreciates the newly installed equipment faster, but the incentive to install faster and newer equipment in light of uncertain demand will cap capital spending till the next killer app comes along. The son of my broker said that electronics games are pretty passé in his crowd. Most kid are not all that enthusisatic about the prospects of the new platforms. It looks like they are more into the doing the extreme sports rather than watching it. The extra cellphone services are also out. Most can not afford the extra cost. They seem to want the newest phones, but not the new services. Hand held systems are in and being connected to the internet over the handhelds. This sort of contradicts the earlier statement though as they do not want to pay for it. Anyone else seeing the same thing with their teenagers. Market bottom are typically not seen in bear markets till consumer debts starts to fall. In the current environment the Fed is lowering rate in order to encourage consumer spending (ie ... debt), but in reality he is just delaying a more serious crash that will come when the consumers can no longer carry the debt in a contracting economy.

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