Pump & Dump -- by SliderOnTheBlack
...with one qualifaction & one follow up thought.
MSDW's move was a "pump & dump" imho... it allways is "late cycle" - when they cite "the valuations" - but are NOT upping 2002/2003 eps numbers.
When a major frontline top tier RETAIL BROKER - upgrades & pounds the table on a sector & we get blood red all accross the board, as we did yesterday - SOMEBODY is ZOOMIN' somebody & that somebody - is YOU ~
That this topline nationwide retail salesforce could get a "Green Day" in the OSX with that table pound job - after this selloff & with that pop in Nat Gas... speaks volumes.
It tells you & shows you - hell, it rubbed your noses in the fact - that there is STILL a helluva lot of Institutional selling- YET to come.
But, this will NOT remain a pump & dump forever - there will be opportunity & there will be a time, a place and a valuation to where - these are VALUES and one can buy them for the LT...but, not yet imo because:
1. the sector was over-owned (still is)
2. many (if not most) institutions were caught off-guard by the speed & the depth of this blow off
3. Big TAX LOSS sales yet to be cleared (this is a BIGGIE FOLKS !)
4. Seasonal factors - there is a "WALL" coming at the oilpatch & I'll pat myself on the back here - not because I'm an egomanic (okay I am) - but, because the F@#$%^n Institutional analysts arent honest enough to tell the retail investor this:
That the "WALL" that's coming at the Oilpatch is the comparable draw/injection months of November & December. These are Key months that set the tone for the peak demand winter season. Last year we had the coldest Nov & Dec in USA HISTORY - in history. This was a super-charged kick-off catalyst to the entire energy STORY last year that led to & created that huge Nat Gas E&P blow off top in late Dec.
These institutional "Rat Bastards" know they've got a "pump & dump" window between now & then to rally the OSX.
This year - we've got those huge drawdown comps of Nov & Dec to face & there is NOT going to be the kickoff catalyst story to sell this year.
I think yesterday told us a huge tax loss selling willingness is still there and I think they want out on any rally - here; because they'll want back in when we finally blow off on the negative Nov-Dec comps we ARE going to see both in supply draws and in cfps & eps for the E&P , integrateds & majors - as well as in Oil & Gas prices for Q3 & Q4.
Negative comps late cycle & negative comps are what you're going to see in Q3 & Q4 ahead.... do NOT make for rallies, they make for bottoms. Some driller/service co's are excluded as their eps are still ramping, but they're earnings got reduced for 2002 - untill big upgrades arrive... they're dead too.
Last year the Street had the "ENERGY CRISIS" - catapulted by the coldest Nov-Dec in history to sell - energy was the lead/cover story everywhere last year, but this year there's no "sizzle" to sell and the only story they have to sell here - will be: "buy 'em because they're cheaper than they were"...
Late cycle - you'd better be skeptical & cynical towards EVERYTHING you see, read & hear from the analyst community - they're trying to get you in (or back in) so they can get themselves, or their "most favored" clients - OUT.... guarandamnteed.
The time to ride the analysts coat-tails is early-mid cycle (as in the spring of 1999, or 2000) when earnings, dayrates are ramping & were climbing toward the cycles target prices - NOT ever after we've allready fallen... NEVER after that bubble-bursting sectorwide eps downgrade...that's the fools game in cyclical sector cycles...
ALL the "BIG & EASY" - high reward/low risk MONEY is made Early-Mid cycle in cyclicals.
Unfortunately 75% of those who get tempted, who get greedy, or try to get too smart - by trying to squeeze one more rally, one more trade out of cyclicals - late cycle, after the "sizzle" to the story has burnt out - LOSE & traditionally give back all, if not most of the past 1-2 years cyclical profits & gains.
This is a "Beat the crowd to the party - but, never, never - EVER still be around at last call" type of play... allways has been, still is and allways will be - period.
JUST SAY NO !
messages.yahoo.com |
