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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 273.47

-0.7%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: DebtBomb who wrote (11415)	8/18/2001 8:24:45 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) of 208838

Hi Dale, I'm sure everyone understands the significance of the date of that article is that it was at most written a week or two before the 17 year bull market started in earnest (although some chart readers claim the bull market actually started in 1975). Ummmmmm .... PEs of 5 - 6 !!! Now that is a climate where the public, who got nailed in the 1973-1974 recessions, hated stocks ! Elaine Garzarelli made a compelling argument that we've reached bottom because the PE of the S&P 500 using 2002 projected earnings -- minus technology -- is about 15. Unfortunately, many believe that the earnings consensus for the S&P500 is roughly 20% too high. So I still say even if you think a PE of 15 is ok, too many signs point to another 20% drop in the S&P500 before its over. And of course, the NASDAQ and tech stocks will shoulder the brunt of that drop. I'm gonna wait a few more months for the "new market reality" to sink in before becoming a contrarian. Chris

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