You've been doing it right in quality juniors. Looks like most people don't believe this POG rally will sustain. Everybody is conditioned to look for failed attempts. Very little excitement on these threads and looked like stock was offered and not much bid on a solid day Friday. I really don't know what the next $10 move will be, although the big increase in commercial short sales reported Friday is of some concern.
I'm going to lighten up on FN (already sold half on the little pop above $21) and maybe IMG (if I can get another dime or two), and have a few bucks on hand. FN hasn't done anything about NDY's big Aussie dollar/gold hedge book and could get hurt. Also they have made big pronouncements (last May and June) about more impending deals and buyouts ("watch us, it's going to happen within several months, blah, blah") and again haven't done a thing to date. Nevada as a source of sustained royalities is no fountain of youth (Goldstrike is overrated) unless POG clears 350. It's a "where's the beef" aspect for me. IMG is a great producer but is having a tough time replacing low cost reserves. That's generally true of most producers, so my nickel's worth advise is sell about all of them and rotate to the quality juniors. Just my typical "out of the box" thinking, but eventually even if POG sustains a 280ish level, the issue of reserve replacement and survival will become paramount. As of today I can't find a single producer I would buy, and see even my favorites in that class as weak holds at best. I'm not selling any in the junior class, and would use proceeds from seniors to buy juniors off the bid if POG sinks back again towards support.
TNK is in an attractive range. The problem there is that they haven't come up with a new JV in Vicuna and will likely miss this season's drilling (Oct- Jan) in Argentina. So the question is if they came up with a new partner in the next two weeks could you still buy at 60. Probably so?
RDU isn't coming up with high enough grades yet.
Here's a couple more "free look" possibilities (with tiny market caps) that have serious exploration being conducted by majors in Nevada. Again I think the idea is to react quickly (a la YMC, MR) if stellar results turn up:
Nevada Pacific (NPG): check web site, strong geology team and pedigree, NEM (for 70%) started this week at Limousine Butte. Promising results last year ignored by market.
nevadapacificgold.com
Coral Gold (CLH): ground just north of Cortez/Pipeline that PDG has explored somewhat unsuccessfully. PDG is back at it again.
Also:
IMA Exploration (IMR); See my SI posting of article.
Message 16223419
Freewest (FWR): I'm a believer in Clarence Stream and stock has come back to the range I bought at BEFORE there were excellent drill results. I just bought more at 27.
GAM: did not pass my DD. |
