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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 261.90+0.4%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: mitch-c who wrote (50757)8/18/2001 12:58:25 PM
From: Robert O  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
re: I look at the max-pain number as a predictor of a range, not a price. Basically the underlying stock will close between (one option step lower < max-pain < one option step higher). This month, that range is 42.5 < 45 < 47.5.
AMAT barely stayed in the range at 42.57. Therefore, Max-Pain worked as a predictor.


Shazam, mitch, you're too kind, really. Your range gives another 11% of underlying price latitude. Are you and Ben A. in cahoots or something? <g>. Consider that Ben updates the Max-Pain [TM] charts on Wen. so going into the Friday expiry you already are getting a solid number. To allow your range (in order to offset 'noise' effects?) is too grand. I think Ben's idea here is novel, but allowing +1/-1 of closest strikes doesn't pass the Z-test.

Regards,

RO
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