Slider. Excellent post! And THANK YOU Frank.
What an elegantly simple way to make moot the silly attempts to ban Slider on SI. They can't stop the dialog here because they can't stop your peers AND friends from valuing your insights and plugging them right into the ongoing discussion here.
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IMO, you're right on table pounding home ANOTHER big driver pushing the next big sell off into an important bottom sometime in the 4th qtr. It's a driver that most of us have either over looked entirely or not emphasized:
<...the "WALL" that's coming at the Oilpatch is the comparable draw/injection months of November & December. These are Key months that set the tone for the peak demand winter season. Last year we had the coldest Nov & Dec in USA HISTORY - in history...>
<This year - we've got those huge draw down comps of Nov & Dec to face & there is NOT going to be the kickoff catalyst story to sell this year.>
Could not agree more.
Put all the bearish patch drivers together and what I'm seein' is a great big fire sale bottom with Bearish Sentiment (no matter what measurements you look at) before year end the likes of which we've not heard since late 1998! Indeed the stuff of which important bottoms are made.
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I'd like to flesh out the tax selling driver we've both pointed out repeatedly.
Of course the, by now, semi-comatose remaining perma bulls would probably fire back, "No big deal, we have some tax selling every year, right?"
WRONG!!!!!
Every year ain't created equal when it comes to tax selling, people. Veterans of past Bear Markets in many sectors know this only too well.
Iso's Rule# Sweet 16<G>
Every sector in a major Bear down trend during the 1st 9 months of a tax (calendar) year ALWAYS suffers much greater tax loss selling during OCT/NOV/DEC than it does in the 4th qrt of a sideways or Bullish trending year.
Standard approach by individual "buy and hold investors" VS alert investors and good traders (who exit bad trades quickly via stops) IS...
WAIT till the 4th qtr before selling to estab the capital loss.
And all anybody needs do to see there's vastly more tax loss selling ahead than in 1999 or 2000 is? LOOK at the price charts of the NG fallen angels of Jan/Feb !!
No interest in TA or chart reading required.<GGG>
See those huge price declines? They guarantee a TAX SELLING AVALANCH this year folks!! Put it on your calendar tickler for OCT/NOV/DEC and watch it happen.
But that's not all. On top of all that tax selling and the other caveats to patch investors we've been pounding away about since Jan/Feb is another biggie. One BTW that I see few people talking about on the various Oil and Gas threads.
FALL SHOULDER SEASON injections into NG storage THIS YEAR! It's going to really lean on patch stock prices AND on the commodities, especially NG!
IMO, the low for 2001 in NG will be in mid/late 4th qtr.
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KEY, KEY KEY, amigos! To get the picture of the big selloff that's coming in the 4th qtr clearly in your sights you MUST combine all the pieces of the picture we've been talking about. They ARE additive.
How about a little humorous but VERY valuable lesson via a little walk down memory land?<g>
Anybody remember the 4th qtr patch selloff in 1999???
One of the great web classics was SD's own late night soap opera saga that occurred in November (if memory serves) of '99.<g>
For the newbies who weren't around then. Can you dig?
The scene for aggressive but clueless players was basically:
"Max Margin" Call City! It was a blood bath!
One clueless wrong way trader REALLY "did himself"! Sly had warned him about the "trap door". But nope, this guy was a 2 year expert.<lol>
A few weeks of sharp patch stock decline and the the phone was ringin' off the hook with margin calls.
Then you begin to see posts from a toy pooch who'd definitely popped! I'm sittin' at the screen reading these his own account of runnin' laps around the block....then basement weight lifting sessions at 3 AM !! And finally a tear jerker, mea culpa NO MAS post, when he capitualated.
Point is, when you add all the bearish items that are going to drive patch (& NG prices in particular) lower in the 4th qtr? This falss decline should dwarf the 1999 blood letting!!
A little familiar quote for those whoever might think it prudent to hold fully invested in the patch through that period:
"Ye who enter here, abandon all hope"
My expectation right now is that the cyclical Bear thesis for the patch that we presented strongly in Jan/Feb and since is going to see it's full glory this "FALL"<G>
The powerful individual drivers will combine to wash out prices in the OS, NG and Oil stocks.
For the patient, with tons of cash to put to work in Oct/Nov/Dec, "le gran bottom" will burst upon us like a zesty sunrise.
Watch...wait...and POUNCE!!<G>
Right Now Unless you:
1. Have a REAL special situation stock, such as the big LOILY position I very recently sold OR,
2. Are a nimble ST trader who enjoys picking off scalps here and there?
I've pulled in my horns on some recent patch longs that I was lucky to scalp out of with a gain. No Intermediate Rally YET!!
Stay in cash, own lots of gold stocks, and (if you're an aggressive trader) look for rally ops to short into.
Cheers,
Isopatch |
