Neutrino Resources..Good Cash-Flow.. Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Neutrino Resources..Good Cash-Flow..

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To: Gulo who wrote (14)	6/19/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: Richard Saunders	of 45

Andrew/ back at you for a minute...... you lost me on the numbers. For a start oilpatch cos. are usually valued on a cashflow basis - earnings is (in Martha Stewart country) a "good thing" but it's cash flow that counts. Don't lose sight of it. What?...... DON'T LOSE SIGHT OF CASH FLOW. Your projections...... How in the world did you arrive at $0.58/share? Off hand I'd say you're off (too high) but I'm only shooting with news releases - supposedly the more detailed annuals, etc. are in transit. Anyways, another thing........ where did you get the release you posted in m #13? NTO released 1Q financials on May 22 at the isdn.com site. I'm confused. The May 22 release shows that cash flow was just over $2.066mil. or $0.10/share. Production worked out to the equivalent of 2456 boepd for the first qtr. March production was supposedly 3077 boepd. Still looking at the 05/22 release, between Jan. 1 and March 31 there were 90 days. Multiply 90 days by the AVG. BOEPD (2456) and you obtain a total production value for the 1 Q - 221,040 BOE. Divide that total number into the indicated 1Q revenue and you'll see NTO rec'd. an approx. avg. of $20.58/boe produced...... not an "outstanding number" but not bad either. HOWEVER...... that was th this is NOW. Price of oil back in the early part of the year was well over $22us WTI - it even reached upwards of $26us WTI for a few minutes. Where's the price of oil now?....... less than $19us. Do the same sort of number stuff with total indicated cash flow and you'll find NTO pulled in approx. $9.35/boe produced in the 1Q. Once again, not great but not totally ugly either. So........ the question becomes - what will NTO be able to do for this year and next year? Once you have cash flow pegged then you can go make some "value" assumptions and figure at what price the stock becomes a "good deal" for buying and "not a good deal" for selling. A very simplistic rule of thumb where you won't go too far wrong is to look at possibl;e buying opportunities when PRICE/CASH FLOW ratio is less than 3.0 This doesn't always work for small startups but personally I wouldn't group NTO into that category anyway.......... Phew, please recognize that the above views are mine and I don't really mean to be nattering at you - I do get choked when I read "this stocks going to go to $humungous " with no backup. Just my views.......... happy hunting.

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