Steve's Channelling Thread Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread

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To: westpacific who wrote (24628)	8/18/2001 6:59:36 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) of 30051

West, here is a lurker's perspective. There are two problems with the emphatic predictions on this thread. First, most are wrong. I have been skimming this thread for several months and rarely find an accurate short-term call. It's well-informed guessing that underperforms flipping a coin most of the time. I haven't done a statistical study but crunching the last few thousand messages would probably bear that out. Second, most SI prognosticators deliver all their predictions with equal, vigorous conviction. Not "I think my indicators point to a likely drop" but rather "This sucka's gonna tank next week!!!!!!!!!" So lots of folks, especially newbies, will take you at your word when you or anyone pounds the table with a call. And most have not followed the SI guessing game long enough to know how many calls are wrong. Nothing against folks who try to read tea leaves (though clearly it's not my game) but remember how your words may be perceived. Zeev has said many times that being right 60% of the time is the goal. That's how you make money, but I hardly think it's a number worth pounding the table over. FWIW.

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