Andrew, I will add my two cents on JMAR. I owned the stock 10 years ago for a short while when it first went public. I have bought back in this year, because I believe they will soon deliver the goods. Although I do not have a technology background, I have been a financial exec in a major company, and an investor in microcap tech stocks for 35 years.
It is my judgment that JMAR will probably in 2003 capture a lot of the lithography equipment market for GaAs chips. How can I say that with no background in the industry? Read the last few company announcements and the detailed notes from several investors in the company with enough stock to make it worth while to attend the meeting. Some things come through to me loud and clear:
-DARPA has put $35 million into this over 10 years and is putting a lot of money into this at this time to bring it to a successful conclusion.
-The terms of the SAL acquisition are loaded toward delivery of the end product AND sales. I can't see anything but a positive interpretation here.
-It seems clear to me from what others have said that JMAR is already at performance levels sufficient for major throughput gains in GaAs chip production versus current methods.
-All comments by various company officials to different investors at different times during the Annual Meeting, both public and private, can be summarized, in my opinion, as there are NO technical hurdles left, just "some assembly required" (my phrase).
ragingbull.lycos.com
Beyond this GaAs XRL situation, the company appears to have other things going for it, some dependent on economic recovery and some not:
-Working to bring XRL output levels up to the level required for silicon processing.
-Has EUV point light-source that is claimed to be superior and is in talks with (large) potential partners. Here is that release:
biz.yahoo.com
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-JSI division has experienced manager and is developing a communication chip line (fabless) which is being qualified with customers (and selling slowly at this time).
-Has inspection equipment for chip manufacturing division that has done millions in sales for biochip manufacturing (Affymetrix) and believes that they will also participate in advanced chip manufacturing inspection (300mm).
Negatives:
-Company has been mostly a development stage company since coming public with only modest commercial success. However, I have read that it took Cymer more than 5 years to get its technology out of the lab, so perhaps I fail to comprehend the complexity here.
-Company has said they will need additional funding in the first half of 2002 and has just pre-registered $25 million of securities. Of course, if they issue a bunch to a EUV partner at above market prices, this would be a major positive not a negative.
Potential: I view this rather like a biotech company. If they make continued progress, the stock could soar long before a single dollar of revenue is booked. In my opinion, if the 3/31/02 SAL milestone is met and announced, I believe it would be worth 5 points on the stock; the 9/30/02 milestone another 5 points; and the 12/31/02 milestone another 5 points. Here is the SAL release:
biz.yahoo.com
Thus, I view the upside as 15-20 points over a year or two, possibly much, much more over the long term, with a downside of 1 or 2 points. That is a reward/risk I always participate in. I rate the stock "2", accumulate, which is exactly what I am doing.
I would appreciate any comments you might have. |
