Hi AC Flyer, <<I have to query your long-term terror>> ...
You should know that, for folks in Hong Kong, used to having two operating businesses, two investment philosophies, two cellular phones, two credit card billing addresses, two dinner engagements in one night, two spouses, and two definitions of long term, are very, and simultaneously adventurous/cautious, optimistic/cynical, and somewhat mischievious, though with an altruistic bent.
Unlike the average J6P, we tend to mix business, pleasure, investment, speculation, money, fun, capitalism, communism, and astrology all in the same salad bowl. We do not mistaken luck for genius. I have been lucky, and that is all.
I suspect my definition of <<long term>> is about half the time of what others may have on the same. Explicitly, my longterm is generally 3 years (average of 2-4 years), intermediate term is 1.5 years (average of 1-2 years), and short term is 0.75 years (expectation adjusted average of 1 week and 12 months).
I can also state that <<terror>> for us in Hong Kong is a terribly enjoyable state of mind, desired, sought after, cherished, and to be taken advantage of.
Cultures are different now that I stop to reflect a moment. In HK, we often are justifiable told we are insane.
Now, 20/20 forward looking, I am ready for a long winter of about 24-36 months in the real world where events simply not that bad yet, and a 'bottoming' hopefully within about 12 months in the financial world where events are still more than tolerable now.
I generally aim for 11% return year on year. Someone just PM-ed me and asked why ...
<<I kind of thought you seemed obsessively worried, but not sure why? You were happy about being in cash before -
so, why are you in a panic all of a sudden?>>
... and my answer is, "The prospect of getting handed a check equal to 16 years of active savings (my share is 8 years) in a currency on the cusp of purchasing power readjustment makes me very uncomfortable, especially given that the check will only arrive in January.
I am also not willing to willy-nilly lose any existing purchasing value if I can help it. Especially not to Greenspan:0)
My point of staying in cash is that it is maximally flexible, as it crouches in a dark corner, scoping through the rifle attachment down at the melee on the plain below.
I am willing to move that cash around as I deem cautious or adventurous.
I think over time, you will find that I am a speculator at heart and a risk-taker in the genes".
If I am not worried, I am not betting enough, and so better double up.
Welcome to the thread:0)
Chugs, Jay |
