Hi Dave B; Back in May 2000, you wrote: "You proclaim to know everything about memory and I'm trying to weigh your inputs against those of the Dataquest analysts Jim Handy and George Iwanyc who beleve that RDRAM will be 75% to 80% of the market and that the price will come down below that SDRAM." #reply-16230600
So. When is this RDRAM going to be 75~80% of the market, and when is it going to be cheaper than SDRAM?
Maybe you should consider the possibility that you've carefully chosen which analysts you wish to believe based on your investments, rather than trying to understand what reality is.
Nothing I predicted was much different from what Semico predicted. You guys did nothing but insult Semico (and me, for that matter) for 2 years, and now who does it turn out was right?
By the way, the same thing applies to your analysis of the patent situation. All the time that Semico was saying "the patent issue hasn't been decided at court yet", you were following the Rambus wall street pumpers who were saying that the game was over and Rambus had won.
Yeah, sure, hide behind the fact that these opinions were those of people other than yourself. You were the one who chose who to believe, and you blew it.
-- Carl
P.S. More along the same line:
BTW, here's Part II of the Dataquest viewpoint.
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Now, if the RDRAM receives all the attention of the designers in the die-shrink group, and if the RDRAM constitutes the bulk of the market, then it is inevitable that RDRAM pricing should eventually drop below SDRAM pricing. This will then have a self-propelling effect of forcing RDRAM to be used in applications that don't need all that bandwidth, but that need to use the cheapest DRAM available. This means that anything from hard disk drives right down to the lowly digital telephone answering machine are likely to be found using RDRAMs in future years.
For 2000, though, we see a more gentle progression. RDRAMs will penetrate to reach 13 percent of the year's market over the course of the year, the bulk of this number shipping toward the end of the year. DDR will not achieve such a high number and we expect to see the difference in penetration between the two technologies increase rather than decrease. Although it is likely that DDR's acceptance in graphics subsystems will ramp faster than will RDRAM (from a perspective of the percent of all systems penetrated) we do not anticipate that overall DDR shipments will ever come near those of RDRAMs.
Jim Handy and George Iwanyc are senior analysts with , a market research firm based in San Jose. The first part of this Viewpoint appeared in the Jan. 10 issue of Electronic News.
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Nothing else to add, Carl. The premier research firm has spoken. #reply-13465725 |
