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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 142.09+5.5%Jan 22 4:00 PM EST
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To: jrinvestor who wrote (75250)8/19/2001 10:41:12 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (2) of 116906
 
JR, I'd like to respond publicly here, while maintaining the confidence of your PM, because I think it would be good for others to respond and give their opinion.

I see the most recent break in the USD in the same light as the Nasdaq break in March 2000. Although I see an upward correction in the USD taking place in the coming week, I think we have just witnessed a top in the USD. The POG based out in the mid $260's for quite a while before the most recent advance. I'm looking for the POG to form a higher base in the mid $270's here before it moves higher.

The economic fundamentals are drastically improving for the POG. Ford's earnings warning on Friday was a signal that consumers have begun to stop spending.

Moreover, I'm finally beginning to see Gold assume its role as safe haven here. The coming week will be crucial for the POG and Gold Stocks. The week after options expiration over the past few months has seen the gold stocks and the POG give back most of their gains from the preceding week. If this does not occur this week, I think these stocks and the POG are poised to move higher.

When I look at the economic fundamentals, I do not see a valid Bearish argument for Gold. Sure, the fundamentals always look best at the top and the worst at the bottom. But in light of the recent break in the USD, I do not see that as being the case with the POG or Gold stocks. A bit of retracement and consolidation would be healthy here. A break to lower lows I just don't see occurring at the present time. But I have been wrong before. The fundamentals look very compelling moving forward for the POG and Gold Stocks.
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