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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 163.66-1.0%11:02 AM EST

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To: marginnayan who wrote (103003)8/19/2001 10:52:51 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
successful bond fund managers are very sharp
and worth listening to
they are far more expert in analyzing the economy than the gaggle of gongbonging so-called economists
most economists are either politically biased (thus mere cheerleading hopers) or beholden to heretic indefensible principles (thus bad statisticians)

those who mock bond managers forget that they must be expert in analyzing the entire business cycle
they may not have a tight grip on stock sectors
but they have the best grip on the business cycle, stalling tendencies, and recovery likelihood

the smartest among the bunch is Grant from "Interest Rate Observer"
is he biased?
is he worth listening to?
he has a sterling track record going back a few decades

I read 80-85% of economists get it very wrong
I read that Grant gets it right at least 90% of the time
Gross is one of the best

watch money supply liquidity rising dangerously
watch the declining USDollar
the former will help stocks temporarily someday soon
the latter will hurt stocks in a more immediate manner

money supply growth (like 1993) is building volcano forces that should be visible in gold stocks soon
but only after a low is rather clearly understood
I wont be surprised if I hear that by 2003 GreenJerk is raising interest rates to ward off "perceptions" of inflation evident in mining shares and gold prices

as the US$ comes down, gold will rise in Euro currency terms
THAT WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR GOLD STOCKS AND XAU

GreenBoink's rate rise in 2003 would pinprick goldbug inflation expectations
but would revive a flagging USDollar (rates are akin to dividends)
and would stall any stock major average recovery (like 1994)

we may see a strange twisted repeat of 1993-94
but with a more moribund economy as a backdrop
since more moribund, gonna take more liquidity
AND A BIGGER VOLCANO TO COME PERHAPS
/ jim
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