New Asteroid Discovered-Possible Collision Path With Earth
From Jack Sarfatti
sarfatti@well.com
8-19-1
If this is for real, it means trouble.
If it's real, then forget protesting Bush's ABM with the "BAN SPACE WEAPONS" slogan - we need to get an effective space force up there now and hope we can blast the thing with nuclear tipped ICBMs launched from space platforms unless someone has a better idea? Even if this one misses, the problem will not go away and it must be faced!
gear2000@lightspeed.net wrote:
Ok, Jack, now you have a readiness target date.
****** Forwarded Message Follows *******
<http://www.thehotsheets.com:80/Boards/Forum2/HTML/000069.htmlhttp://www.theho tsheets.com:80/Boards/Forum2/HTML/000069.html
Sorry to be the one to break this news, but a new Earth Impactor Asteroid has just been announced by NEODys, and this one...
1) Is very big
2) Is on the same order of magnitude of impact probability as 2001AV43
3) Will possibly impact the Earth in the very near future!
Let me introduce you to Asteroid 2001PM9.
a) Discovered on August 11, 2001 and observed up until August 16th. Its orbit was computed and posted today.
b) It's Absolute Magnitude suggests it is anywhere from 530m to 1.2km in diameter...that's up to nearly 3/4 of a mile in diameter!
c) It will make a relatively close pass to within .089AU on May 10, 2003. The first possible impact date calculated and the one with the highest probability of occurring is set for June 17, 2005. If it misses Earth on that pass there are another 28 possible impact dates calculated between 2005 and 2079.
Dear Readers, following are some facts that ought to set you right back in your chair, grow you some grey hairs - or cause a certain amount of lost sleep.
If 2001PM9 impacts the Earth...
1. It will be the kind of impact event that only happens once every 25,000 to 500,000 years.
2. It will impact with a force of somewhere between 100,000 to 800,000 Megatons
3. It will be somewhere between a "Large Sub-Global Event" to a "Nominal Global Effect Threshold" Event.
4. It is estimated that an impact of this order would result in the loss of anywhere between 500,000 and 1.5 Billion lives (depending on exactly where it hit).
Ladies and Gentlemen, if and when 2001PM9 impacts the Earth...
a) If it hits in the Ocean tsunamis could reach "global scale".
b) If it hits land it could completely destroy an area the size of California
c) Could raise enough dust to affect the climate and freeze crops.
d) Create a crater up to 30 km in diameter (18 miles around).
e) Cause ozone layer destruction on a global scale.
If you worried a little about 1998OX4 and 2001AV43...be very concerned about this one.
We really need to push the button on this one (get the word out and get a lot more information).
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This message has been edited by Tom (edited 08-17-2001).
The orbit simulator is interesting.
<http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2001pm9&group=all&search=Searchhttp:/ /neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2001pm9&group=all&search=Search
On June 3, 2003 we will be in the area of the solar system where 2001PM9 was 10 days before. If this is as big a rock as you say then it probably has a lot of baggage. A more serious concern is that 2001PM9 has a low inclination orbit that might reach the asteroid belt. It is almost there now but i am not sure if the orbit goes out that far. I can't remember if the asteriod belt is closer to Mars or closer to Jupiter. If it does travel through the belt, then it really could have a lot of baggage. Thanks for the info. Charlie
Here are the NEODys pages......
2001 PM9
<http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2001PM9;mainhttp://ne wton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2001PM9;main
Earth Impact Possibilities
<http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;mainhttp://newton. dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main |
