Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR)

EXTR 17.65

-0.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Sully- who wrote (620)	8/20/2001 10:06:51 AM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) of 770

From Briefing today: 09:13 ET Stocks to Watch: : Analyst ratings changes are dominating the markets this pre-market....Morgan Stanley is downgrading Layer 3 networking companies Extreme (EXTR 22.45) and Enterasys (ETS 13.05) to Neutral from Outperform. The firm is says Layer 3 switching forecasts are too aggressive on EXTR. This is an important call because companies with exposure to enterprise customers have been seen as safer plays relative to companies with heavy carrier/service provider exposure. So it's not surprising to see EXTR down $2 in the pre-market. Others to watch in sympathy are Foundry (FDRY 15.26) and f5 Networks (FFIV 14.59); Finally, firm is also trimming FY02 estimates on Cisco (CSCO 16.61)....Optical equipment maker Ciena (CIEN 18.78) is being downgraded two notches by Lehman to Mkt Perform from Strong Buy. Firm says that even after precipitous decline, it does not see any reasonable return for at least six months and believes additional downside is possible. From ALR July 18: I think it is pretty bold (or foolish, or they are really confident that with new products it should be in the bag, time will tell) to come out with a 12-month revenue forecast in that tight of a range, however, especially in this economy. But let's say they do $545 million next 12 months, versus $491 in the currently ended 12 months, that's just an 11% YoY revenue growth. If we look at the cash flow metrics tossed around in the CC (I recall it was around $10-$15 mil per quarter), looking at around $.35-$.50 forward EBITDA per share. So I think that at $24 (where she's trading AH), there is still downside risk on valuation. Message 16096633

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