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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 159.42-1.2%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: samim anbarcioglu who wrote (103011)8/20/2001 10:18:51 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
declining US$ in Euro terms means Europeans are losing money
if stocks decline in dollar terms, and dollar declines in Euro terms
then European investors in US stocks are seeing bigger losses
if they begin selling, then US stocks deteriorate further
it feeds upon itself

just like economic decline feeds upon itself internationally
investment decline feeds upon itself when the home country's currency is in decline

the US$ has fallen 7% vs Euro since Aug 1st
Naz has fallen at least that much
so European investors have lost over 20% since Aug 1st
if they lose confidence, they sell out
if they believe a scary US autumn is upcoming, they will sell out

the real big twist could be rising US interest rates while this unfolds
if Europeans sell our Treasury Bonds also, then rates rise
worse, if Japanese bring money home by selling US TBonds, then our rates rise even more
this is what I expect to happen, all the while gold rises
so in Euro currency terms, gold will rise more
then gain some upward momentum
then lead to perception of rising US inflation
you know? confirmed by rising gold in dollar terms

world currency markets are like a three-way teeter tawter
with stocks and gold moving along the planks of the teeter tawter
as the tilts change
/ jim
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