anecdotal evidence from west Boston residential market:
I lived in that area for 20 yrs, and plan to return
got several friends involved in the real estate business
commercial RE agent, residential RE broker, commercial owner, and several friends with watchful eyes
talked yesterday with a friend due west of Boston
they live near the outer loop I-495
she has a neighbor who is having difficulty selling their house
it is a typical large 4-bedroom with garage on 3/4 acre
it is quaint, built around turn of century, very nice
Boston has newer and quaint older all over the place
this property has been on the market for over a month
the family must sell, and head to NY state for new job
they lowered the price, and still little or no foot traffic
selling price was $430k, now $405k, soon less
she tells me that dozens of other houses are up for sale
some need to move, some want to capture this peak before prices come down
she reports that many houses have come down in asking price
but little or no foot traffic
she knows personally about 4-5 families in town who must sell
but her neighbor provides the day-to-day blow-by-blow account
these little towns outside Boston are unique
they are tightly knit, schools and kids knit them tightly
houses are NOT selling
they say it is like a brick wall was hit when the summer began
I told her about EMC laying off a thousand this summer
they are located west south west of Boston
I told her to expect more pain when EMC announces second layoff rounds
they warned of this in recent public statement if sales dont pick up
they are not picking up
I have a friend in EMC now who confirms this
her nearby entire marketing department was dismantled
commercial Boston hit the skids in late spring
this woman's husband works for commercial RE agency
he told me between Nov2k and May01, office rental prices dropped 40% per sqft
and building rentals were at a standstill
the commercial owner talked with me about personal experiences
he has more office vacancies than ever before, not happy
in 1998-99 small tech firms filled all his office units
now a few of them have actually gone out of business
he has 80% occupancy and is feeling the strain
the residential broker talked to me about in July
she said back then that prices were still firm, houses were moving but not as quickly as before
she expected that if time on market continued to lengthen, we would see prices coming down
must speak with her again soon
I conclude in Boston, residential began to roll over in summertime
next comes the price declines showing up in final sales figures
the heavily service oriented (green) economy in Boston has avoided much of what has descended upon SanFrancisco
but cracks are widening in the important financial services
I think Fidelity holds the key in this area for Boston
fwiw, Jim |
