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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (40427)	8/20/2001 2:34:37 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) of 65232

next up on the chopping block is real estate this should have a more serious effect on consumer spending than stock declines David Shook of BusinessWeek.com is on drugs, serious delusion massive overhang of residential properties in every major city I have read about worst is SanFrancisco and Silicon Wolly we dont hear yet of RE prices coming down because not much is selling now asking prices are coming down this could easily accelerate down during late August quiet period time on the market is rising everywhere, for property sales foot traffic is sharply reduced in three months we will read of the results of current asking prices being reduced I expect before it is over that residential real estate prices will return roughly to just below 2000 levels maybe down to 1999 levels this will crimp home equity spending this will put an abrupt end of new home equity lines of credit in my mind, absolutely no way for real estate to avoid the crunch in asset values RE reacts to layoffs as much as interest rates resort property was first commercial property was second everyone thought residential property would hold up why? because everyone needs a place to live? wow, shallow thinking there a friend told me over the weekend that a few people he knows are thinking of selling their houses, renting for a year or two, and returning to a smaller property in 2003 I know one friend who has done precisely that he sold in west Boston in May for huge gain they move LaborDay weekend into big two-bedroom rental apartment smart young guy I see the final crunch as having residential property prices come down AT THE SAME TIME that Europeans take a big chunk of their money out of US stocks this will create our major stock index lows in Sept-Oct / jim

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