Hi John,
Thanks for your thoughtful reply and the Barron's POV on the Surreal Estate market.
W/R/T the 10% of Japanese who hold equities, this needs to be viewed in the light of the fact that TTBOMK, the Japanese salaryman and his wife were never really that involved with equities, even at the height of the bubble in 1989. As I recall (corrections encouraged), the percentage of the Japanese population who entered the equities fray never got above 35-40%, unlike the current situation in the US, where about 60% or so of investors have some exposure to equities. The Japanese were and are, largely postal savers. I.e. investing for a meager interest rate (actually saving rather than investing) through their unique form of "mattress money".
As far as a "profound loathing" is concerned, I sense I've been well ahead of the crowd in this viewpoint. Not that this has necessarily made me a popular contributor to any number of threads here at SI. <w>
As to the housing market, Barron's is completely in character here with it's cup 3/4 empty analysis. What they don't point out is that if the unemployment rate is 4.6% (or whatever) that the employment rate is 95.4%. A not insignificant super-majority, IMVHO. The rates at which the expected profits of the home builders are anticipated to be falling off seem reasonable to me. Though my opinion is skewed in that our local real estate market is extremely vibrant at the moment. Alas, it's impossible for me to stay completely in character as a curmudgeon in the face of contrary facts. <g>
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On a separate note, I'm working my way through Stigum's 1990 version of "The Money Market" and am wondering if there are any on the thread who've read both the 1990 and current versions (OK, at least skimmed) and could comment on the worth of my continuing with the older version as a historical document, versus how much this older text may have been "overtaken by events", as the saying goes. Comments welcomed!
Cordially, Ray :) |
