Sorry haven't posted recently. This is a busy time of year for me at work, and I've been out of town.
Well, I got QQQ Aug. 40 calls at $1.00 like I said I would towards the end of last week and promptly sold them for $0.10, booking a negative 0.90 earning. However, after extraordinary events and non-recurring charges (namely, I won't be able to buy Aug 2001 calls anymore) I believe I did book a small pro-forma profit in line with lowered guidance issued earlier in the day (I'll have to check this with PriceWaterhouse-Cooper).
Actually, I lost my profits from my previous trade, so no big deal. I didn't risk too much on that one. I got QQQ Sept. 38 puts on Friday at $1.85 and closed them today at $2.05, looking to re-position tomorrow if there is a small run-up into the Fed meeting.
It is a little hard to figure how things are going to play out near term. Everything seems to indicate a major flush is at hand. If so, we should have a nice bounce off a double bottom on the Nasdaq. If that happens, we may not have too much tax loss selling in October. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
I'm hoping to get some QQQ Sept. 38 puts anywhere under 1.50 tomorrow, but I think I'll be lucky to get them for 1.90 if we don't get past resistance at 1889 COMPX. If we do get past 1889, we could go to 1935, but I highly doubt this will happen. There is just way too much weakness out there, and the Fed 25BP cut has been widely anticipated for over a month. I will most likely get puts by noon no matter what happens.
Getting ready to position for a bounce off 33 QQQ/1300 NDX/1600 COMPX.
Interesting that Max is mentioning the collapse of the housing market. Although I see the West Coast/East Coast boom/bust markets heading towards their bust modes, the interesting aspect I see is Home Depot and Lowes both most likely restructuring and closing slews of stores in 2-years, with stock prices getting hammered Lucent-style to boot.
Home Depot and Lowes are a couple of houses of cards, and when they stop adding stores the stocks will collapse. I'm in their industry, and it is a ticking time bomb that will go off in a couple of years, IMO. |
