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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (8407)	8/20/2001 11:19:49 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) of 57684

LEI...Briefing.com: Highlights Leading indicators rose 0.3%. Coincident rose 0.1%. Key Factors 4th month of increase, longest string of gains since Oct 1999 to Jan 2000. String of increases provides some credibility for recovery expectations. However, upturn largely tied to financial stimulus rather than real economy. Positive forces for July (in order): M2, lower initial claims, steepening yield curve, consumer expectations. Negative contributions (ordered): Stock prices, factory workweek, manufacturing deliveries, building permits. Weak coincident index (net flat over 3 months) consistent with flat economy. Big Picture July left a 4th consecutive rise -- the first quadruple gain since Oct '99-Jan '00. The recession alarms are quiet again after frequent warnings over the last 12 months. The index has provided false alarms in the past and the jury is still out whether the current economy fell in to a shallow recession. In the last decade the recession alarms have signalled only twice prior to the recent ringing: correctly signaling the 1990 and providing a false signal during the 1995 Fed-engineered soft-landing.

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