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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: ild who wrote (273)8/20/2001 11:32:24 PM
From: NanduRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
From the Morgan Stanley link you posted:

One of the most interesting revelations in the accompanying figure is that historically, home prices have usually begun to show some noticeable deterioration at least a few months prior to the onset of recession. This was true in each of the past three recessions since 1975. But in the midst of the current economic slowdown, home prices have continued to skyrocket. Thus, history is of little help in gauging the timing of a potential spillover of the current economic weakness to the housing market -- we are already well past the point where real estate market conditions should have responded.


I think this argument is incorrect, for the simple reason that we are technically not in a recession yet. We are in a sharp slowdown, which I expect will turn into a recession very soon, but we are not there yet, as of the last GDP report.
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