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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 344.71

-1.1%

Jan 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1010)	8/21/2001 12:24:27 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95761

During Sept/Oct 98, the previous cycle bottom, people were also discussing how the lack of demand, combined with overcapacity, would stretch on for years. We are reading and hearing the same comments at this stage of the current cycle and the numbers look remarkably similar. Bookings were off 73% in Sept 98 compared to Sept97 (down to 481 from 1773) whereas last month's numbers were off 75%. Back then we were told that the PC upgrade cycle was over and that there would be limited demand for semis in the future until a new "killer app" came along. I can't tell you how many times I've heard this or read this comment lately, especially as it relates to DRAM pricing. Is it possible to calculate the % drop in RAM pricing during the 98 lows and compare them to today's prices? Tomorrow's statistics should be very interesting and will help us determine if we are viewing strong similarities between these two cycle lows. Falling on a FED meeting day, too. Should be a lot of fun to watch the markets the next couple of days.

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