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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 232.38

-0.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (130293)	8/21/2001 2:35:11 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) of 164684

>> I'm stepping in here, HJ, to tell you that I sincerely think that post is a great contribution. << yes it is a wonderful contribution. the article hj posted points out the obvious differences between 1982 and today, and makes it clear why we are not on the brink of a new bull market...for stocks that is. too bad you are unwilling to accept this. the article is much more analogous to a bottom in commodities prices, not stock or bond prices. --back in 1982 stocks had done nothing for almost two decades. today commodities have been in a bear market for a couple decades. --stocks were near historic low valuations. today commodities are near historic lows. --back in 1982 stocks were in a panic sell-off after years of decline. today commodities are selling off hard after years of decline, testing their lows like stocks did in 1982. --sentiment toward stocks was extremely pessimistic back in 1982, or even indifferent. the same could be said for commodities today. people either think they are imploding or they just aren't even worth paying attention to. sentiment for stocks is NOT pessimistic today. most everyone says the market bottomed in march/april and will not make new lows. most talking heads expect the market to rebound in 2002 when the full impact of rate cuts are felt. a real market bottom would have the majority of people saying the lows are not in, and we see NO HOPE of recovery. everyone would be saying the fed is impotent. the prevailing view of today is that the we just need to be more patient. --back in 1982 interest rates were very high, the dollar bottomed a couple years prior (due to volcker) but was still below the highs of the late 60's after fed chairman volcker had recently tightened and said he was targeting the money supply to break the back of inflation (which caused the recession of '81-'82) seemingly a bad set of conditions for stocks right at the bottom. --today interest rates are near historic lows, the dollar is very strong, 90% of investment professionals surveyed say they are not worried about inflation, and fed chairman greenspan is easing and printing money like mad to try to save us from deflation. seems like a bearish set of conditions for commodities near the bottom.

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