George, if you want my answer, you should try and address the post to me, I almost missed that post.
The most interesting thing I find in that very lengthy quote is: "Personally, I believe this second 1.50 penetration gives even further confirmation, and reinforces even stronger the underlying infrastructure for the new bull market.", that is exactly the argument I brought against Hay's earlier excess bullishness in May (I am sure Bilow could find the few posts where I discussed the fact that from the last 11 or 13 such events a full six were "paired" three to six month apart), and that I expected the last "event" to be paired as well, and thus my tenet of another reaction in August, and possibly in October. We have the August reaction, and depending on the sentiment reading in the next two weeks, it may be the end of this bear move.
Hays forgets one distinct difference between the 1962 bottom and the current one, valuations were much more rationale then. He also fails to mention another historical precedent, that four year stretch (1962 to 1966) culminated in a peak above 1000 on the Dow that was not surpassed essentially for more than 16 years thereafter, fitting with my current theory of a very lengthy period (close to three years no in that "period) where the averages are going to be bound in a range (I still have 6000 to 13,500 on the Dow and 1400 to 5300 on the naz).
Zeev |
