KastelCo & Art, I have been looking for the same play in the patch despite the apparent truth that
Slider keeps repeating like a mantra, that this is a cyclical industry. I cannot get away from a fascination with
what ought to be (must be very careful with this concept) " fundamental longterm plays in this industry". I too
watch AOG=AEC.Tor and try to follow news on the Toronto Exchange. There is limited info available
under various headings when clicking into a particular company at tse.com. What concerns me is that I don't have
access to in depth coverage of a company in Canada. I too am intrigued by what ought to be a good play
in Unocal. For one, they have been the topic of takeover speculation in Valueline summary for years.
I have learned to take Valueline with a certain measure of salt, eg, their gushing forecasts of two stocks I lost money in, Worldcom and Loral, and they were pessimistic as I rode (scared shitless I should add) another
past favorite, Qualcomm for a quarter mil, making my Keogh much healthier. My major concerns in both Unocal
and another one I have been watching, Occidental, are twofold, DEBT!!! and foreign exposure in political minefields. The Valueline summary is somewhat forbidding in its recounting of the measure of debt in both these companies. There is seldom a day goes by we don't read of some South American terrorist disaster regarding Occidental. Unocal is heavy into Indonesia, not a very stable place to put our money into. Occidental looks to be in some sort of major "powerful family influence" sphere. Armand Hammer is documented history and Al Gore's dad and he were thick as thieves AND Occidental got the East Hill plumb in central California. ("Political shenanigans"?? How would we know?) I don't feel comfortable with conspiracy theories, and that sort of thing...but I have been around long enough to know little guys like us are the last to know what the big guys know. That said I am also fascinated with the fact that legendary "Oracle of Omaha" Buffett bought USG as a valueplay and it now appears it was a disastrous investment in stock, perhaps not in their bonds. So even he can be wrong. Duh! On the face of it all of Suncor, Alberta Energy and Anderson Exploration ALL look like terrific longterm plays. But in the marrow of my old bones I feel like Slider may be right, that there IS NO place in this industry to just put money in and forget about it. Probably no place in the whole market at these levels for that strategy to work. I watch my two remaining golds like a chicken with her one egg, Franco-Nevada and Goldcorp. I.e., I have become paranoid. It just may be that the concept of buy and hold may be dead for a decade. Good luck with
your decision about Unocal.
Jim Black |
