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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Ted David who wrote (16128)8/21/2001 2:43:26 PM
From: JRI  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Great job Ted in "outing*" Ms. Cohen....Haines did a great job setting the record straight on Diane Swonk this morn....she misunderstood the extent of this malinvestment bubble starting last summer. She still refuses to admit being wrong however (what else is new). Swonk had a sterling record prior to last summer, but seems to have difficulty owning up to own predictions. BTW- Swonk said something mindboggling: She is sticking to the "consumer will save us" story...even though corporate profits are horrible, and projected business bad. Haines (correctly) asked Swonk, "well, how is consumer going to keep spending if there is no turnaround in corporate profits soon....more people are going to get layed off, etc".

Swonk wouldn't even go there. Ted, consumers have hit the wall, and the wall is fighting back. Ford just told us. The retailers are telling us. A little $ 600 tax rebate ain't gonna do it, and has already been spent.

Ted, this is not your normal downturn (since WWII). This is your Daddy's downturn (pre-WWII, huge malinvest overhang)...they take longer to fix, ultimately will be more painful, and will end in ABSOLUTE BOREDOM about stocks.....we got a few years to go...

Doesn't mean we won't get some nice rallies in meantime though.....just look at Japan since 1991-g .....actually, I expect we will get some uptick in growth by end of year......but 3% or even 2.5% growth handle is probably history for a while..

* We are non-PC here...
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