Max, I don't think the B2B is so big right now, as the ratio is not indicating the actual situation. I mis-read this is June when I thought the B2B would be much worse, but it actually came out better than May. However, the bookings and billings were both down from the previous month.
I had QQQ 36.70 or so as my exit point today. I bought QQQ Sept. 37 puts at $1.30 just before the Fed announcement, but with the weakness in the market up to the close it appears we could go all the way to 1775 COMPX and 1440 NDX before a sufficient bounce is at hand (1440 NDX=QQQ 36).
We're so close to bottom that it is difficult to tell what the next move should be. I for one am only going to re-position puts like I did today and yesterday rather than go call side after closing puts. It is just way too dangerous to play calls right now.
What do you show as support levels for the indexes right now? I see COMPX 1775, NDX 1450-1470, DOW 10,000, and SPX 1152-1155, and below that I don't recall any major support other than 1120, 1100, and 1080.
I'm still looking for a bounce to possibly 1550-1560 NDX if we hit a decent support level, then a drop to maybe 1400-1420, a bounce to 1500, and the final drop to 1300, possibly after the Fed October 2. Who knows what will happen. |
