George, I still think we will get a mild rally (may not look that mild, could be as much as 200 Naz points) from a deep oversold at around 1775 (I mentioned that number earlier today). They may use the BTB in the semi equip as a good excuse, and not even go to the 1775 area right here. It has been four months in a row now that orders have not decreased, and the market may interpret that as positive. My interpretation is slightly different. If they bounce the market from here, I doubt that will be the bottom, none of the sentiment indicators reached real extreme. Interestingly, the equity P/C ratio for the periods ending at 4:00, 3:30, 3:00 and 2:30 were still all under 1.00, being respectively, .86, .71, .84 and .42.
My most "likely scenario for the morning, a mark up due to the BTB hat does not survive the lunch hour.
Zeev |
