Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: KyrosL who wrote (7500)	8/21/2001 8:49:22 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (4) of 74559

KyrosL: I do not have all the answers. It just seems to me that we have/are going to avoid the worst case outcome of the Nasdaq collapse, in contrast with 1929-1939. This is probably due to 1) the internet and the resulting rapid dissemination of accurate information, and 2) demographics. I do not expect a plunge in the markets in October. However, the stock market historically has performed poorly in September and October. I will hazard a guess that we will see the Nasdaq trade down to 1600-ish, the S&P 500 to 1050 and the Dow to 9500 in October. The stock market will then start to anticipate the 2002-2003 recovery - will probably remain in a trading range in 2002 and begin to trend up in late 2002. A possible scenario and all imho. >>Wouldn't a residential real estate market deflation cause the collapse of the main prop in the American economy, the consumer, and, therefore, a much more severe recession than you envision?<< Yes, it would. Again, I think that very low interest rates will help us dodge the bullet here. >>How will a dollar collapse affect your scenario?<< Badly. However, I think that the dollar will retain its value against the Yen and Euro. Neither Japan nor Europe will equal the US's economic growth rate for the foreseeable future. This is America's reward for beating fascism and communism in the 20th Century. The Pax Americana of the 21st Century will bring unimagined prosperity to the whole world.

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