Larry, it is quit fine fo us to disagree. I explained in detail on AMAT thread last week why I do not expect the next upsurge in the semi equip to be as robust as traditionally (I am on a record with AMAT peaking at $75 or so), the main reason is that there is enough capacity out there in 100 mm to satisfy chip demand for the next 18 months or so, furthermore, the industry is, once more delaying the 300 mm program since they can increase capacity by improving technology rather than building completely new Fabs. Last, there is not in place sufficient 300 raw wafers capacity, and with the impeding fall of MEMC (WFR), a "ready" player (having developed 300 mm wafer tech, but having no money to deploy mass production) is coming out. So I doubt we will have massive 300 mm deployment in the next six to 12 months (the same thing I said during the last down turn when everyone was waiting for the 300 mm launch, including me). I view the current economic cycle in general as a double dip recession, first capex, then a mild recovery led by consumers spending and then capex improving, and then a consumer led recession late next year and possibly as late as 2003. Sure we are not far from the bottom time wise (I have 8 to 10 weeks), but beware, the last leg of the bear is a real "paw hit". Until you see desperation and people throwing the towel, stay out of the way of the coming freight rain. Apart of that, Larry, you are not supposed to talk "dirty fumbamentals (g), just watch those charts, and as long as we are making lower lows and lower highs (which we are), stay out of the rain (vbg).
Zeev |
