Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (337)	8/21/2001 11:33:41 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (2) of 36161

Victor, I've been wading though some EIA numbers. - World demand is 76 million Bbl/pd - U.S. consumes 20 million Bbl/pd and imports more than 55% and out of that 70% comes from OPEC. I didn't take the time to calculate an average, but I did notice a variance of 40 to 85 percent over the past 30 years. If I were to grab a number from the air, I would say 70% is a good ballpark figure. Also note; that world demand has increased an average of 1% per year. The infrastructure is in place to handle that 1% demand, but anything more, like we see in boom years (2% demand growth) – the last two, causes brief supply shortages. Despite the reductions from OPEC to artificially create scarcity, non-OPEC producers have picked up the slack, hence the reduction in the OPEC imports you sited. Just think, zero demand growth in a world recession will have producers shutting-in new production and refineries being mothballed. Lets hope for a turn around in the economy, I don't need a lay-off slip. Regards Frank P. eia.doe.gov eia.doe.gov eia.doe.gov opec.com

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