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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 155.44+2.3%12:30 PM EST

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To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (10010)8/22/2001 7:50:31 AM
From: Mark Marcellus  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Does it bother you at all that the dynamics of your purchase are eerily similar to the decision process a car owner goes through? It even sounds like you should do a comparison between buying a used computer vs. buying a new one to see which makes more sense for you.

The mental model I use for the semi sector is steel. Steel, with the advent of the automobile, became a tremendous growth business and a great investment. Then, as the auto business matured, it became a mature business and a lousy investment, because without the growth the capital requirements for being in the business became a real handicap. This happened over a period of decades. What really worries me about the semi sector is that the same thing could happen over a period of months, and it won't be clear until afterwards that this time it was the end of the road, not the end of the cycle.
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