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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Bruce Brown who wrote (45764)	8/22/2001 5:54:18 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Bruce, bigcharts.marketwatch.com A 10 year chart of Oracle, Microsoft, Siebel, Intel and Applied Materials. [Note: For fun guess the best performer before peeking] I see little evidence of software being cyclical. I see evidence of a bubble. I have been working more that 20 years in the software business and I have never heard of the industry being cyclical. Where are the points of overcapacity that would lead to cycles. There is not inventory. There are no factories. R&D accounts for only 12% of revenue. I think the TALC has more impact that any industry specific cycle. Paul

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