" Now, just what do you figure AMD will be ramping in the fourth quarter without any products for another 6-12 months?"
Sigh. Ok, consider that it takes 3 months for a bright, shiny wafer to become packaged products, +/-. Probably a bit more for SOI since it has more processing steps. It is unlikely that AMD is going to flip a big, red switch and suddenly they are in full production of 0.13 production, they will ramp one up, and the other down. So it is not unexpected that they will build up a quarter of production before shipping. A good example is Fab30. In late January or 2000, they started production. By the Q1, 2000 CC, they were up to 600 wafer starts per week. But the Tbird was not introduced until June, 2000 (IIRC). So by your definition, AMD did not start their ramp on the Tbird until late Q2/early Q3 of 2000, while AMD is claiming Q1 of 2000. So this is where your nomenclature diverges from theirs. Your focus on shipment, they focus on production. |
