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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (45793)8/23/2001 2:49:23 PM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
It shouldn't be, but don't you feel that BEA is being offered as a tentative gorilla ... not even just as a candidate for inclusion in a basket, but as the presumed winner?

I think it only appears this way because (1) BEAS is the only pure play in the field and (2) almost every data point we have indicate that BEAS is indeed the undisputed leader in the field. Most data points we have indicate BEAS and IBM jumping out of the field and it is ambiguous as to whether or not BEAS is bashing IBM or vice versa or its a stalemate.

So I guess unlike say the CRM front office game where you have 3 or 4 legitimate pure play candidates, this game is by necessity much more narrower from an investment perspective as buying IBM solely because they are a gorilla candidate in the app server market is liking buying MSFT because they are playing in the interactive TV field.

But indeed it is early in the market. But you must admit all the signs are there from the technical journals to trailing revenue growth to two companies pulling quickly away from the pack and every competitor screaming "were better than BEAS." But these are only signs and they can indeed be misleading, particularly during a technology depression, which we are in.

Tinker
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