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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 221.24-0.6%Dec 17 3:59 PM EST
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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (130455)8/23/2001 8:21:04 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
>> Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, least of all not our cherished overheating teapot Craig, knows what the heck will be going on economicaly three yrs from now. Or commodities-wise three yrs from now. <<

i don't claim to know what economic conditions will be like 3 years from now.

a whole host of things have lined up for a bull market in commodities in the coming years however.

1) excessively high dollar
2) historic low valuations for commodities
3) near historic lows for interest rates
4) a couple decades of disinflation and some deflation (no one can even imagine inflation ever coming back)
5) money fleeing stocks
6) excessive money supply
7) unprecedented easings
8) low inventory levels historically for many commodities
9) bearish sentiment and panic selling
10) capitalism spreading around the globe (especially in china, india, etc)
11) japan looking like worst possible scenario demand wise
12) 100 million added to population every year
13) environmental regulations and red tape growing more pervasive all the time
14) relative peacetime conditions for a while now
15) huge discrepancies in distribution of wealth
16) mild weather conditions
17) growing risk of trade wars, tariffs, embargoes
18) consolidation and producers exiting the business
19) the effects of the push toward recycling over the last several years priced in
20) more and more activist groups and laws passed to stop unfair child and slave labor conditions
21) etc
22) etc
23) etc
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