I thought things had shrunk. Maybe its only profits going down on a higher revenue base.
totaltele.com
Fiber-optics hardware sales to total $10b this year By Reuters staff
Tim, the key in the linked article is the discussion re long haul vs metro networks. The long haul network is pretty much built out while the metro is still going strong. And most telecom/optical companies provide hardware for both. Unfortunately, sales gains in the metro network are not enough to offset the losses on the long haul side. That's why the companies that sell product in this space are hurting. However, one or two stocks/companies like CIEN were mostly on the metro side and have new products that people like so they were only just now in the final throes of bottoming out....and now, they may just turn around and go back up.
Now let me make clear about the CSCO comments today...all they said really was that they have some visibility and things appear to be stabilizing. In other words the worst MAY be over and sales shouldn't keep dropping. What the markets heard....we cleaned the sh*t out just before our customers came banging on the door wanting tons of new product....Naz 5000 here we come!!
I heard this guy on CNBC...he had been trading for like a hundred years and he was complaining: why can't you people leave those tech stocks alone...they have to build bases before they can rally. He has never seen a correction like this one where the bubble suspects were not allowed to lie down and die like they are supposed to.
An example is AMD.....it ran up for most of the first half based on the perception that AMD was taking market share[which it was] and business would definitely pick up in the second half. So when AMD's second quarter report came out and then gave not so great guidance, it was a real shocker. I am sure the traders in AMD thought it was going to have major YOY gains in revs and EPS.
Now assuming the telecom stocks rally the next few days, the only thing different, and presumably its a good difference, is that unlike the AMD rally, this rally may be just that much closer to an upturn in the economy.
In any case, I am all ready if these guys rally ...I bought more VTSS and JNPR before the close...if they ramp, it will be the first time I have been this timely in a trade. I almost bought some CIEN, then chickened out when the false runup it had [because its entering the S&P] petered out. Now it looks like I should not have chickened out.
I also want to buy some more BRCD since it looks like it double bottomed. I've listened to two BRCD CC's and Reyes, the CEO, is cool...he really has his sh*t together. I think BRCD is a keeper and I want some for my 401.
Too many stocks, not enough $$$ !! ;~))
ted |
