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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: White Bear who wrote (6943)	8/23/2001 11:27:57 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) of 23153

Not many new fabs in Silicon Valley - labor cost is too high. Most of the new fabs in the Valley are specialized analog / mixed signal / RF/ and/or Silicon on insulator stuff which needs LOTS of very experienced people to tweak it. THe top four have had announcements, the rest of the industry is dancing around hoping someone else goes first to make the mistakes, but knowing that they may need to follow quickly if their competitors move to 12 inch. Very much like the penguins waiting for some one to go in the water. After 5-6 have done it , everyone will want to do it right then - But no one wants to be first or second. This waiting period can really stretch out, especially if there is no "visibility". Or it could cascade on some positve news.... Makes it real interesting to put a value on AMAT, KLA-Tencor, etc. I woould expect the AMAT threads would have better information on this. 12' fabs - Intel - probably plan to dominate flash meemory in additona to micro processors. Either Oregon or Arizona. IBM - Probably Vermont or Fishkill , NY TSMC Taiwan solid ************ UMC - probably Korean DRAM makers - Samsung especially , but may get delayed due to financing Micron - maybe - Idaho Texas Instruments - maybe Infineon (ex Siemens) maybe, maybe cooperating wtih AMD

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