Out the door in 2004.
Oh, the debate around here is endless and all, but it's really rather spurious.
Bush is gonna get nailed Hard by the coming recession. Get ready. This baby hasn't even begun. Hope you've all been packing it away for a rainy day. Brrrrrrrr. The Bush family legacy to remain intact.
vny.com
A taste.....
Consequently, when the recession hits with full force, from October
onwards, there will be no weapons left with which to fight it. Short-term
interest rates will already be at historic lows, while the burgeoning
federal deficit will certainly prevent any further tax cuts; indeed tax
increases may be forced through by a divided Congress.
By late 2002, the economic picture will look bleak indeed; so a
spendthrift Congress is almost certain to be elected that November. Such a
Congress would doubtless ratchet up government spending as a proportion of
Gross Domestic Product, as Congress did from 1931 on and the Japanese Diet
(parliament) did in the 1990s. Relatively high and rapidly rising public
spending, as demonstrated in my column last week, will prove a huge barrier
to economic growth, as it has been for Japan since 1993 (and as lowish but
rapidly rising public spending was for the United States from 1931 on.)
Thus, if all goes ill, the recession will prolong itself, a spendthrift
president to match the spendthrift Congress will be elected in 2004
Noticed the news headlines lately ?
- Sharp drop in estimate for budget surplus
- Rummy Rumsfeld and his plans outmaneuvered by Pentagon brass
- Social Security benefits may face cutbacks
OUCH ! How are the betrayed voters going to like them broken promises ?
As if that's not bad enough, even the K-Wave is poised to slap him down :
csf.colorado.edu
The American historian Arthur Schlesinger identified a series of liberal-conservative political cycles back in the 1940's. His cycles agree pretty well with the figure.
Schlesinger identified a liberal wave from 1901-1919 (the figure shows 1896-1916), a conservative wave from 1919 to 1931 (the figure shows 1916-1931) and a
liberal wave from 1931 to 1947 (the figure shows 1931-1946). Since Schlesinger's time we have seen a conservative wave from 1946 to 1963, a liberal wave to
1980 and a conservative wave since then.
The Kondratiev/stock cycle-aligned political trends I show in this webpage seem to be the same cycles seen by Schlesinger. The alignment with the stock cycle
suggests that we should see a fall-off in conservatism in the near future. Political scientists have a concept called critical elections that are usually dated 1800,
1828, 1860, 1896, 1932, and 1968. The last four are spaced 36 years apart suggesting the next one will be in 2004. The combination of the political cycle and
critical election concept suggests that the Bush administration would be replaced by a more liberal administration in 2004.
Guess he stole the wrong election. Oh, well.
Repoobs will re-take the house in 2002 mainly due to reapportionment gains from the majority repoob controlled state governments, but it won't help 'em much by 2004.
Trouble Begun in 2001, Out the Door by 2004.
Too bad. |
