Warp: I know what you mean about beaten down gorillas,
although in Gorilla Game taxonomy, only CSCO among your picks qualifies as a gorilla in the first place. I prefer buying into what I take to be better future growth than an existing (book-defined) gorilla offers, so long as I see attractive valuation based upon expected growth.
I'd add BEAS, NTAP, and SEBL in that order of current price relative to immediate future prospects and long term value. I own the first two, and am waiting on SEBL because I expect it to fall further. All 3 could fall another 50% in a tech bloodbath (I'm exercising price discipline now, so we're probably at a bottom). BEAS and SEBL are dominant in their spaces. Neither owns a proprietary open architecture in GG terms, but if Buffett were a tech investor he might say both have sustainable competitive advantages (although it is early to say even that). NTAP competes with EMC. I would not buy EMC. Neither is or will be a gorilla, given their commoditizing tech space.
Main competition for BEA Systems is IBM (if IBM goes to 118, I short it and its now-you-see-it-now-you-don't accounting!) Main competition for Siebel is Oracle (well, Ellison's vision of where Oracle will be).
I have a (not yet fatal) attraction to the shiny pebbles--in GG-speak those are the up and coming tech companies that don't have success in the bag. In optics, I like ONIS, OCPI, FIBR but already own and will wait for a washout to add. BTW, I look at market cap, not share price. CSCO and INTC are gorillas with low share prices, but what share bloat!
Edit: I still like AVNX, especially at these prices, and will add on a Fall downdraft. Will also buy CORV. Each is a poster child for beaten-down tech. |
