SEBL vs. ORCL, IBM vs. BEAS
Larry-san is furious at Seibel, and will try to displace it with Oracle suite applications. Problem is , he (Ellison) doesn't have much credibility in corporate America, although his product does. IF Oracle keeps squeezing SEBL, maybe giving away free some of the functionality, they can marginalize SEBL. If Larry over reacts, and does something stupid, corporate America is likely to embrace SEBL even more.
Look at a graph of ORCL since Ray Lane left last August ....
SEBL has worked hard to make friends their customers. Oracle has worked hard to ...you know ;-)
IBM vs. BEAS
IBM is very concerned about BEAS & WebLogic. They are pouring tons of money into IBM WebSphere. Problem for IBM, WEb Sphere doesn't work as well...yet. Unless IBM makes progress soon, BEAS will have things wrapped up. (They may have it wrapped already) If IBM gets something adequate , and effectively gives it away free, they could still win.
The cut in IT budgets has been sort of like a yellow caution flag at the Daytona 500, allowing ORCL & IBM to catch up. If IT spending starts up in spring, it is likely that SEBL and BEAS will win. IF budgets are low until next fall or later, it may be possible for the old guard to catch up.
I expect prices on all four of these to keep dropping, especially around tax loss season.
Mid to late December might be a good time to pick up more...
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NTAP / EMC I don't know enough to comment....
What about the software side -
Veritas vs. Legato ? |
