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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (6968)	8/24/2001 10:54:28 AM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (1) of 23153

The last time CNBC was touting housing I raised the point here that it was a good indication for a selloff. Unfortunately I did not short and we had the recent decline. I am not sure how demographics play into the housing market. But I would say that with a growing population and migration to certain areas of the country, "middle class" housing could be short of supply for some time. The upper end of the housing may be a bubble, but the vast majority of people in the USA are living in houses more likely to cost ~200K. Will this implode? I doubt it as the demographics should support demand and therefore most Americans wont see the last holder of their wealth evaporate. The people who benefited most from the tech bubble are the ones who inflated luxury home prices and they will likely suffer the most. Typical families who felt a little giddy may have overspent on home improvements, SUV's etc. Until they work off their debt I doubt they will be "shopping till they drop". So to clarify I suspect discretionary spending will be under the gun until the sky's are cleared of ominous storm clouds, but I dont think there is much of a housing bubble to burst for most American home owners.

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