I read the article. I'm not nearly so negative about Cisco as most of the bears and shorts are. The fact of the matter is that Cisco, the company, is fundamentally sound and is kicking ass everywhere. In fact, they are eating Juniper's lunch as we speak. They have had tremendous market share gains against Juniper this past quarter and will continue to marginalize Juniper in the future. As for the rest of the markets, they are continue to lead in every market segment they compete in and are focusing on the tornado markets. Cisco is the best networking company out there, bar none.
However, Cisco, the stock, is what concerns me as an investor. Will Cisco provide a decent return for me in the one year or greater time horizon. I believe yes, but it's not at the levels that I'd buy yet, especially with the most recent pop. This stock is not going to be able to sustain today's move until after October and after we see not just signs of stabilization, but of renewed growth. That is when the stock will start tearing upwards again. I expect to see another bottom in October, and that is when I will re-establish my long position for another good 5 year ride. I made a triple in the last 5 years on Cisco and I expect to make a little more than double on the next 5 year ride, once I get back in, hopefully below $16. |
